UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2vs
UFCmmaMain EventLightweight
Max Holloway
25-7
Charles Oliveira
34-10 (1 NC)
Sat, Mar 7, 2026
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Holloway 35%65% Oliveira
Charles Oliveira— Clear Lean
Moderate
Method Prediction
32%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
32%
Decision
Tale of the Tape
Holloway
Oliveira
5'11"
Height
5'10"
145 lbs
Weight
155 lbs
69 in
Reach
74 in
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
25-7
Record
34-10 (1 NC)
USA
Country
Brazil
Physical Matchup Impact
Reach
69" vs 74" (5" diff)+1.5%
Height
5'11" vs 5'10" (1" diff)+0.1%
Record
25-7 vs 34-10+0.0%
Key Factors
5" reach advantage is significant — controls distance and landing zone
Fighter A has a significant striking advantage (+11 pts)
Fighter B controls the grappling exchanges (+17 pts)
Fighter B has a chin vulnerability — increases KO risk
The engine leans Charles Oliveira at 65.2% probability, with Submission as the predicted method. The biggest skill gap is in Submissions, where Charles Oliveira holds the advantage. Max Holloway has a viable path through submission threat but must overcome a 65.2% probability gap to pull the upset.
Why the Engine Leans
5" reach advantage is significant — controls distance and landing zone
Fighter A has a significant striking advantage (+11 pts)
Fighter B controls the grappling exchanges (+17 pts)
Fighter B has a chin vulnerability — increases KO risk
Method breakdown: KO/TKO 31.9%, Decision 32.4%, Submission 35.7%
Keys for A
Exploit Chin/Durability advantage (+26 pts) to control the pace
Avoid prolonged Submissions exchanges where opponent has +42 pt edge
Force an early finish — probability gap widens in later rounds if cardio differential holds
Momentum: 4 wins in recent fight history — confidence and timing are peak
Keys for B
Exploit Submissions advantage (+42 pts) to control the pace
Close via Submission — engine gives 35.7% method probability
Momentum: 3 wins in recent fight history — confidence and timing are peak
Risk Factors
Charles Oliveira chin rated 62/100 — elevated KO risk
Data Gaps
No significant data gaps identified
Grounded in 17 career stats · 11 facts · 11 fight history rows
Generated Feb 12, 2026snapshot 372007b7