UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphyvs
UFCmmaMain EventFeatherweight
Movsar Evloev
18-0
Lerone Murphy
15-0-1
Sat, Mar 21, 2026
O2 Arena, London, England
Evloev 60%40% Murphy
Movsar Evloev— Competitive
Moderate
Method Prediction
26%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
58%
Decision
Tale of the Tape
Evloev
Murphy
5'7"
Height
5'10"
145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs
71 in
Reach
72 in
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
18-0
Record
15-0-1
Russia
Country
England
Physical Matchup Impact
Reach
71" vs 72" (1" diff)+0.3%
Height
5'7" vs 5'10" (3" diff)+0.5%
Record
18-0 vs 15-0+0.3%
Key Factors
Fighter A controls the grappling exchanges (+18 pts)
The engine leans Movsar Evloev at 60.2% probability, with Decision as the predicted method. The biggest skill gap is in Grappling, where Movsar Evloev holds the advantage. Lerone Murphy has a viable path through knockout power but must overcome a 60.2% probability gap to pull the upset.
Why the Engine Leans
Fighter A controls the grappling exchanges (+18 pts)
Method breakdown: KO/TKO 25.6%, Decision 57.6%, Submission 16.8%
Keys for A
Exploit Grappling advantage (+18 pts) to control the pace
Close via Decision — engine gives 57.6% method probability
Keys for B
Exploit Striking advantage (+5 pts) to control the pace
Avoid prolonged Grappling exchanges where opponent has +18 pt edge
Force an early finish — probability gap widens in later rounds if cardio differential holds
Risk Factors
Limited recent fight data for Movsar Evloev (0 fights in DB)
Limited recent fight data for Lerone Murphy (0 fights in DB)
Data Gaps
No fight history for Movsar Evloev — engine relies on attributes only
No fight history for Lerone Murphy — engine relies on attributes only
Grounded in 5 career stats · 5 facts · 0 fight history rows
Generated Feb 12, 2026snapshot 1f695fb5