UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfervs
UFCmmaMain EventMiddleweight
Israel Adesanya
24-3
Joe Pyfer
13-3
Sat, Mar 28, 2026
Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
Adesanya 89%11% Pyfer
Israel Adesanya— Strong Lean
Moderate
Method Prediction
40%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
47%
Decision
Tale of the Tape
Adesanya
Pyfer
6'4"
Height
6'1"
185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs
80 in
Reach
75 in
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
24-3
Record
13-3
New Zealand
Country
USA
Physical Matchup Impact
Reach
80" vs 75" (5" diff)+1.5%
Height
6'4" vs 6'1" (3" diff)+0.5%
Stance
southpaw vs orthodox+1.5%
Record
24-3 vs 13-3+0.4%
Key Factors
5" reach advantage is significant — controls distance and landing zone
Southpaw stance creates unfamiliar angles — historically a 3% statistical edge
Fighter A has a significant striking advantage (+15 pts)
Fighter A controls the grappling exchanges (+10 pts)
The engine leans Israel Adesanya at 88.8% probability, with Decision as the predicted method. The biggest skill gap is in Fight IQ, where Israel Adesanya holds the advantage. Joe Pyfer has a viable path through knockout power but must overcome a 88.8% probability gap to pull the upset.
Why the Engine Leans
5" reach advantage is significant — controls distance and landing zone
Southpaw stance creates unfamiliar angles — historically a 3% statistical edge
Fighter A has a significant striking advantage (+15 pts)
Fighter A controls the grappling exchanges (+10 pts)
Method breakdown: KO/TKO 40.0%, Decision 47.4%, Submission 12.7%
Keys for A
Exploit Fight IQ advantage (+24 pts) to control the pace
Close via Decision — engine gives 47.4% method probability
Momentum: 5 wins in recent fight history — confidence and timing are peak
Keys for B
Exploit Power advantage (+2 pts) to control the pace
Avoid prolonged Fight IQ exchanges where opponent has +24 pt edge
Force an early finish — probability gap widens in later rounds if cardio differential holds
Risk Factors
Limited recent fight data for Joe Pyfer (0 fights in DB)
Data Gaps
No fight history for Joe Pyfer — engine relies on attributes only
Grounded in 10 career stats · 4 facts · 8 fight history rows
Generated Feb 12, 2026snapshot 056e1c32