Fundora vs Thurman: WBC Junior Middleweightvs
Prime Video PPVboxingMain EventJunior Middleweight
Sebastian Fundora
21-1-1
Keith Thurman
30-2-1
Sat, Mar 28, 2026
Las Vegas, NV
Fundora 41%59% Thurman
Keith Thurman— Competitive
Moderate
Method Prediction
57%
KO/TKO
0%
Submission
43%
Decision
Tale of the Tape
Fundora
Thurman
6'6"
Height
5'11"
154 lbs
Weight
147 lbs
80 in
Reach
71 in
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
21-1-1
Record
30-2-1
USA
Country
USA
Physical Matchup Impact
Reach
80" vs 71" (9" diff)+2.7%
Height
6'6" vs 5'11" (7" diff)+1.1%
Stance
southpaw vs orthodox+1.5%
Record
21-1 vs 30-2+0.0%
Key Factors
9" reach advantage is significant — controls distance and landing zone
Southpaw stance creates unfamiliar angles — historically a 3% statistical edge
The engine leans Keith Thurman at 58.9% probability, with KO/TKO as the predicted method. The biggest skill gap is in Chin/Durability, where Keith Thurman holds the advantage. Sebastian Fundora has a viable path through knockout power but must overcome a 58.9% probability gap to pull the upset.
Why the Engine Leans
9" reach advantage is significant — controls distance and landing zone
Southpaw stance creates unfamiliar angles — historically a 3% statistical edge
Method breakdown: KO/TKO 57.2%, Decision 42.8%, Submission 0.0%
Keys for A
Avoid prolonged Chin/Durability exchanges where opponent has +12 pt edge
Force an early finish — probability gap widens in later rounds if cardio differential holds
Keys for B
Exploit Chin/Durability advantage (+12 pts) to control the pace
Close via KO/TKO — engine gives 57.2% method probability
Risk Factors
Limited recent fight data for Sebastian Fundora (0 fights in DB)
Limited recent fight data for Keith Thurman (1 fights in DB)
Sebastian Fundora chin rated 66/100 — elevated KO risk
Data Gaps
No fight history for Sebastian Fundora — engine relies on attributes only
Grounded in 4 career stats · 3 facts · 1 fight history rows
Generated Feb 12, 2026snapshot 8a2b70cd